A Trump Peace Plan for Ukraine
Among the essentials are a lend-lease program, real sanctions on Russia, and a revitalized NATO.
There’s no evidence that such capitulation will be part of President Trump’s policy and much evidence to the contrary. It was Mr. Trump who in 2017 lifted the Obama administration’s arms embargo on Ukraine, providing it with the Javelin missiles that helped save Kyiv in the earliest days of Russia’s invasion. More recently, Mr. Trump gave political cover to House Speaker Mike Johnson when he maneuvered to pass additional military aid. Helping Ukraine while revitalizing the American defense industrial base in Alabama, Pennsylvania and Virginia is good policy—and good politics.
The Biden administration’s weakness has left Ukraine where it is today: two years into a full-scale war, with cities destroyed, hundreds of thousands killed, and millions of refugees, and without the means to win. The White House has no strategy for victory, and Americans are rightly concerned.
While Mr. Biden stumbled into war through weakness, Mr. Trump could re-establish peace through strength. Here’s how a successful plan for Ukraine might look:
• Unleash America’s energy potential. This will fire up the U.S. economy, drive down prices and shrink Mr. Putin’s war-crimes budget.
• Rebuild ties with Saudi Arabia and Israel and work together against Iran. This will stabilize the Middle East, ease the Gaza crisis, and create an opening for the Saudis to join the U.S. in squeezing Russia out of global energy markets.
• Impose real sanctions on Russia. The Biden administration’s sanctions sound good on paper but are hollow. The Treasury, for example, exempts Russian banks from U.S. sanctions if their transactions are related to energy production—the most important revenue source for the Kremlin’s war machine.
• Bulk up America’s defense industry. We must show our adversaries, especially Russia and China, that they can’t compete with U.S. defense capabilities. Russia’s economy is smaller than Texas’. We can’t allow China to match and surpass the U.S.
• Revitalize the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This includes making Europeans pay their fair share. It is time to raise the bar on spending to 3% of member countries’ gross domestic product.
• Create a $500 billion “lend-lease” program for Ukraine. Instead of saddling U.S. taxpayers with more bills, let Ukraine borrow as much as it needs to buy American weapons to defeat Russia. This is how we helped Britain in World War II before Pearl Harbor. It’s how we can send a clear signal to Mr. Putin that he will never win.
• Lift all restrictions on the type of weapons Ukraine can obtain and use. This will re-establish a position of strength, which Mr. Putin will understand means the war must end. He will face rising costs and no chance of further gain.
These steps would position Mr. Trump to set the terms of a deal: The war stops immediately. Ukraine builds up substantial defense forces so Russia never attacks again. No one recognizes Russia’s occupation and claimed annexation of any Ukrainian territories—just as we never recognized the Soviet incorporation of the Baltic states and withheld recognition from East Germany until 1974. Crimea is demilitarized. Ukraine rebuilds with reparations from Russia’s frozen central-bank reserves, not U.S. taxpayer dollars.
Ukraine joins NATO as soon as possible so all European allies assume the burden of protecting it. NATO should establish a $100 billion fund for arming Ukraine, with the U.S. share capped at 20%, as is the case with other alliance common budgets. The European Union should swiftly admit Ukraine and help it modernize and develop its economy.
If Russia complies with these terms, the West will gradually lift sanctions. They will be fully removed once Ukraine is in both NATO and the EU.
These steps, and not the half-measures of the Biden administration, will end the war, establish a lasting peace, ensure Europe bears the burden of maintaining it, and re-establish freedom and security on the Continent.
To those who doubt: The last thing Mr. Trump wants in a second term is a foreign-policy failure that distracts from his domestic agenda and makes Mr. Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan look like a success in comparison.
Mr. Urban is managing director at the BGR Group and of counsel at Torridon Law. Mr. Pompeo served as secretary of state, 2018-21.